Fern Halper: Data Makes the World Go ’round

fern-halper

I was going through my blog statistics today when I came across an auto link that led from a blog by Fern Halper.

Dr. Fern Halper is a partner at Hurwitz & Associates, a consulting, research and analyst firm that focuses on the customer benefits derived when advanced and emerging software technologies are used to solve business problems. Fern has over twenty years of experience in data analysis, business analysis, and strategy development. Fern served as Senior Vice President for enterprise applications and services for Hurwitz Group and has held key positions at AT&T Bell Laboratories and Lucent Technologies. Fern spent eight years at Bell Laboratories leading the development of innovative approaches and systems to analyze marketing and operational data. Fern has published numerous articles on data mining and information technology and she is an adjunct professor at Bentley College, where she teaches courses in Information Systems and Business. Fern received her BA from Colgate University and her Ph.D. from Texas A&M University.

I have been reading Fern’s posts with much interest as she not only discusses the industry concepts but gives an example of a product relevant to the concept.  This makes for a much richer explanation as I find myself experimenting with the free trials for hours afterwards.

Link:  Fern Halper’s Data Makes the World Go ’round

Singularity, Pluralarity and Lorentz Transformation

Working with Malcolm Gladwell’s Tipping point, Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity and the Pareto Principle lead me to begin thinking about a pattern that presented itself. In an earlier post here and here I discussed how there had been many Singularities in history. It also lead me to talk about Pluralarites. Then it struck me there is an oscillation between Singularity and Plurality, giving us the Singularity Pluralarity Plot above. And the implications are interesting.

Any innovation follows the Singularity Pluralarity Plot as a complete life cycle. Kurzweil’s singularity will be no exception. The first working AI will be the domain of specialists it will not be unleashed uncontrolled on humanity and it will have been accomplished after several incremental developments that will leave humanity more than prepared for it. The AI will then have to be molded into compatibility to a variety of purposes. After that it will have to be iterated until it is reliable. Once it is reliable then the true singularity happens: the cost benefit ratio is achieved and AI becomes accessible to the general public. The next step is availability on the global market. Finally, AI will have to be always on and pluralarity is achieved. AI will be ubiquitous and the next innovation will take place. The commoditized original AI will begin its descent and a new innovation in AI or a completely new technology will take its place and begin its ascent.

There will be social upheaval, but I don’t think it will be as dramatic or as immediate as some think.  The anthropomorphization of AI will fade and it will just be considered another tool.

The first thing that occurred to me is that as there is a positive and negative infinity there is also a positive and negative zero. Whether the zero is positive or negative is determined by whether you approach it from positive values or negative values. The second thing that occurred to me is that a pluralarity to singularity transition is divisive while a pluralarity to singularity transition is multiplicative. The third thing that occurred to me is that it is possible to have a positive to negative transition. For example you could follow a positive singularity to positive pluralarity curve with a negative pluralarity to negative singularity curve which would ascend like a staircase. The fourth thing that became obvious is that on an exponential curve the Pareto Principle applies at both ends. It’s like applying Lorentz transformations. Fifth, I am currently reading Peter Drucker’s Innovation and Entrepreneurship and have discovered that seizing opportunity, Entrepreneurship, requires recognizing whether you are approaching a Singularity or a Pluralarity while creating opportunity, Innovation, is making a Singularity or Pluralarity. The final thought that occurred to me is what are the implications of this knowledge on network design, physics, chemistry, biology, databases, complexity, simplicity, organization, history, anthropology, evolution, commoditization? I’ll leave it there.